Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 1.014516 1.239081 1.479606 1.754196 2.056901 2.378487 2.744069
2024-10-06 0.704794 1.003015 1.348875 1.770201 2.260961 2.806917 3.452851
2024-10-13 0.537009 0.863066 1.264579 1.776190 2.393705 3.100277 3.955920
2024-10-20 0.398548 0.731631 1.168215 1.749271 2.473905 3.323846 4.373721
2024-10-27 0.357601 0.719430 1.213629 1.889417 2.748770 3.771264 5.048491
2024-11-03 0.318590 0.701824 1.246291 2.009486 2.996912 4.186492 5.686703
2024-11-10 0.285499 0.686444 1.277381 2.124261 3.236573 4.590912 6.312710
2024-11-17 0.257432 0.673718 1.308750 2.237193 3.472901 4.991393 6.935238
2024-11-24 0.216846 0.632312 1.293496 2.283259 3.620856 5.281790 7.424462
2024-12-01 0.173843 0.577613 1.252343 2.288964 3.712990 5.500747 7.825597
2024-12-08 0.125095 0.499218 1.166101 2.224448 3.707360 5.593399 8.069145
2024-12-15 0.085782 0.427062 1.080924 2.154398 3.688809 5.665519 8.284011
2024-12-22 0.059396 0.376895 1.030908 2.139312 3.752518 5.854477 8.661122
2024-12-29 0.043525 0.347489 1.014103 2.173419 3.884909 6.134631 9.156919
2025-01-05 0.028600 0.310837 0.978589 2.174544 3.968149 6.348490 9.567291
2025-01-12 0.015905 0.269046 0.927030 2.146135 4.006882 6.502384 9.900979
2025-01-19 0.015651 0.283640 0.989513 2.303334 4.313310 7.012647 10.692237
2025-01-26 0.014273 0.291540 1.038197 2.438421 4.588743 7.483031 11.434298
2025-02-02 0.012713 0.297408 1.082605 2.566886 4.855420 7.942964 12.164678
2025-02-09 0.011209 0.302544 1.125423 2.693110 5.119637 8.400775 12.893985
2025-02-16 0.007416 0.287679 1.123759 2.744492 5.274618 8.712808 13.436602
2025-02-23 0.003647 0.262555 1.096448 2.750859 5.362561 8.934422 13.862692
2025-03-02 0.000662 0.221206 1.025692 2.678873 5.331937 8.994298 14.078332